China's President Visit
It doesn't seem to be going as well as one can hope. But did anyone expect it to. What are the chances of an agreement on something big such as North Korea, Currency, Tibet, Taiwan? Not much at all. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing came out of this trip except perhaps an agreement to have friendly relations. In my mind, China came here expecting nothing and wanting nothing. He came because Bush went last year and would look bad on the global scene as WaPo points out:
As I wrote about yesterday that China is trying to get support from other nations, the UK Daily Telegraph has a good list of deals that China has had in the past few years with these nations its trying to get their support.
Hat Tip to Foreign Affairs Blog for the Daily Telegraph list.
The visit held deep meaning for the Chinese delegation, which broadcast the pomp -- but not the protest -- to its people back home as a sign of the nation's standing in the international community.China is more worried about North Korea then it lets on. It would hate for North Korea to get nuclear weapons because it would just destabilize the area too much which in turn will lower economic growth for China. China wants some type of agreement. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't want Kim Jong-il to be overthrown and some other government put in place.
As I wrote about yesterday that China is trying to get support from other nations, the UK Daily Telegraph has a good list of deals that China has had in the past few years with these nations its trying to get their support.
Hat Tip to Foreign Affairs Blog for the Daily Telegraph list.
posted by Patrick Flaherty at 3:56 pm
2 Comments:
China would be hardpressed to overthrow the government themselves, they aren't far enough along the development ladder to allocate resources to a war with a million-man army. Plus war's tend to destabalize neighbors indefinately, a headache China wouldn't want to deal with. I think America understands this, hence one of the reasons (perhaps) that the U.S. hasn't taken an Iraq-esque stance in relations with North Korea: they don't want to give China a free ride. Let them do all the work, if they want peace in their region. What do you think?
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Hey Krm
Thanks for commenting. You make an interesting point about America might realised the problem that China faces on regards to North Korea. I think it is an interesting theory. But it is a risky move by America and rather long-term in scope. There are three basic things that china could do. One is of course, nothing which means North Korea becomes a heavily armed nuclear country that is destabilising the entire area and China's own economy(remember the more foreign owned money that china lets in, the more can be pulled out at the first sign of a crisis). The second option is to side with North Korea which China isn't going to do in the next few years with the Olympics and their chance to show off their country to the world. The third option is China could side with the west and America and become a much closer ally. The last option is they could solve the issue themselves, either by overthrowing the government or talking Kim Jong-il out of it. They would gain a lot more credibility in the world if they are able to bring some sort of resolution to this problem
But you other comment that China isn't on the development scale to overthrow the government. I think they could very well likely overthrow the government. North Korea, like most dictatorships, is a one man show. Take out the leader and the government will fall. If China does the overthrowing, there a greater chance of installing a government that is closer to what they want. China needs to contend with the fact that they don't want a democracy or any resemblance to one in North Korea. They certainly don't want a conflict where one side is supporting democracy while another side is supporting something else. This might occur if China or any other country brings down the Korean government. Having a struggle for democracy in North Korea would bring it too close to home for them. But you do make a good point about China not wanting to destabilize the region and America realising that. I think China doesn't really know what to do or what they want with North Korea.
China is very much in a pickle with this North Korea issue. The best thing is for America and the west to somehow solve this problem and leave China out of it.
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